I guess you aren’t going to stop replying in bad faith. I guess I will have to stop replying. The offer stands, however.

Happy to help you understand when you are ready

I’m always available if you would like to engage in good faith.

If I didn’t want to say xenophobic things I would simply not use Chinese as a derogatory term and then launch into anti-China paranoia as a coping mechanism, inventing fealties from whole cloth.

I am here if you need any help understanding.

We’ve reached, “I have black friends” levels of racist coping.

Thank you for openly confirming your sinophobia.

I never did that. You projected that, and just now, lied about it.

No, it can be understood from how you use the terms. You are adding “Chinese” as a bit of negative spice to your false claim that I am lying or spreading false propaganda. When challenged on this, you attempted to (incorrectly, this is not how language works) redefine “Chinese” to mean “CCP” and, per the typical crypto-sinophobic incantation, not the Chinese people. You then continued to interchangeably use Chinese and CCP as negative epithets.

Your attempt at redefinition actually just dug a new hole. You could just say, “oh wow I don’t mean to suggest that, I will stop” instead of doubling down on treating Chinese like an insult.

I do. I clearly defined the usage, and don’t give two shits about projection from you, or your twisting of the definition.

Your conflation of something being Chinese with something being bad is xenophobic regardless of whether you want to pretend you can redefine it to mean something it doesn’t.

You have claimed, falsely, that China isn’t escalating violence against its neighbors.

I actually haven’t said anything like this. Please provide quotes with your claims because your recollection is incorrect.

Everyone can see that you are, in fact, a CCP shill.

Is that so? When can I expect to receive a check for my valiant effort in knowing installing a nuclear-capable missile is far more escalatory than the tiniest airspace toe dip of a flight path over ocean? Only the finest in professional propagandists could have such an opinion!

You sound upset and are not saying particularly coherent things. It’s okay if you want to take some time to collect yourself, I don’t care about the timeline on which you respond.

For example, you seem upset about perceived personal attacks even though I made none, but seem giddy to be insulting me. Ask yourself if this is correct and good behavior and if you believe you are following the golden rule. Presumably you were taught these things growing up.

Re: it being a reconaissance plane, this is still not an actual offensive weapon nor is it comparable to something banned because it was meant for nukes.

Re: DF17s, if your argument is that parity is justified then you would presumably justify Chins increasing the size of its military and weaponry about 10X and establishing several large bases circling the US, right? Or would you interpret this as a threatening escalation that must be met with even more weapons and capabilities encircling China?

In the context of this particular discussion, China = The CCP ≠ The Chinese people.

I dunno, I think Chinese means Chinese. It sounds like you just throw this around as an epithet and it is sinophobic. Please do some reflection on whether you are okay with xenophobia.

As far as which one are lies? Your entire post history is nothing but Chinese propaganda and lies.

Name one from this comment chain.

It’s not xenophobic to call out CCP bullshit like the shit you are spouting.

Such as?

That’s called being a good human.

I don’t think it’s good human behavior to use xenophobic rhetoric.

Just because a weapons platform is capable of using nuclear warheads doesn’t mean we are going to hand said warheads over. The system has plenty of conventional warheads.

The weapons system was prohibited specifically because of its use with nuclear weapons. This is its distinguishing feature. This is the “message” being sent, though it also isn’t just a message because it is an actual offensive weapon.

Deployment of a weapons system as a deterrent is proportional.

It is obviously not.

You’re spreading Chinese lies.

I am? Which ones? Are Chinese lies a special kind?

Sounds to me like you are flirting with xenophobia.

Cluster bombs and mines are sacrificing so much future Ukrainian life.

Sounds like you have no counterarguments. And I did not issue any personal attacks, though clearly your comment is just a hackneyed attempt at insulting someone with a realistic political understanding. Or do you think it is a personal attack to lightly make fun of absurd claims? One can only guess.

You’re such an expert on Russia that you have never heard of defenestration.

I said I didn’t understand the sentences, not individual words. Ironic that your response is condescending despite your simple error.

I bet you haven’t heard of any of these people either.

What about it?

I can only understand your point if you actually state it coherently. I would prefer not to guess.

When was the last time Russia officially released casualty figures? It hasn’t since the very beginning of the war. And even then they were laughably inaccurate. Instead they have been saying that everything is going according to plan.

This is irrelevant to anything I’ve said. What is your logic, here? What do you think you are responding to?

UK, Economist, Ukraine. They all agree on this.

I asked for your best source. You listed two nation-states and the name of a magazine.

Again: show me your best source. You have a very specific claim. Where does it come from? There are numbers. Show me those numbers.

You didn’t understand my answer.

No, I did understand it - as a deflection that avoided answering my question. Please try again in good faith.

Yes, it does. You said Russia can easily trade with the outside world. Going through middle-men in not easy, cheap or fast.

You are confused. What actually happened is that you asked me why Russia was using middlemen and I answeted that it is because they provide an easy way around financial restrictions. You are now trying to quibble about the meaning of “easy” and introducing quantities like expense and delay, but this does not actually address anything meaningful in my response. I think you have forgotten why you even asked the question. You even left out half of my original response, lol.

The financial reports of Uralvagonzavod. At least it gives and upper bound to the number of tanks they are able to produce.

Is that so? Can you show me these financials?

You have done nothing of the sort

Please try to be less contrarian and instead participate in good faith. It is an obvious truth that I have mostly been poking holes in your claims. This, combined with yiu not asking questions, is why you are now so frustrated that I’ve asked you for further backing for your always-multiplying claims and I haven’t had to provide additional specifics on basically anything.

You have ignored the direct evidence I have provided

I have actually quoted and responded directly to everything you have said. Please do your best to be accurate in your statements.

instead kept stead arguing that you are correct while providing no evidence for it.

I have provided plenty of specifics comporting with my claims but my offer still stands for teaching you how to ask questions.

You are not comparing like for like. You are taking figures from a time period when Russian figures were even worse. […]

It is countries comparable in different ways and it is within the last few years. It shows that the current inflation rate is within norms that make some people hand wring but nothing like an emergency. If we wanted to really dive in we would need to look at real wages. Again, you are objectively wrong that this is much worse. It is okay to admit when you are wrong about something.

For comparison, what is Argentina’s current inflation rate?

The reason there wasn’t is because USA was just about the only industrialized nation capable of mass producing things after WW2. […]

Oh, so you know that the vague generalization you made is wrong? Glad we are in agreement, then.

The mental gymnastics you have to go through to keep your opinion without providing any evidence on full display.

No, that was an example of basic humility and then moving forward. The fact that it seems alien and wrong to you may explain why you keep choosing to die on absurd hills and multiply incorrect attempts at nitpicking. Ask yourself why you can’t just say, “a 7% yearly inflation rate is in line with comparable countries in the last few years”. Would it mean that PUTIN WINS!?

Just a few comments ago you were arguing that wages weren’t rising and now they are.

No I wasn’t.

I suggest you do the same.

The salient difference here is that I do that and you don’t. Another trivial fact that you must, against all reason, dispute.

Which is it?

The two are not incompatible. I will wait for you to think about it and then tell me how you think that could be the case.

You have made specific claims that you have never proven or have been proven be factually incorrect.

Only one claim, actually, and it was just me forgetting the newer stats and instead recollecting of the ruble from last year. This is not comparable to 20-30 specious claims. It is also quite different in that I easily acknowledge a trivial error and move on while you (1) double down on every absurdity with new silly generalizations and guesswork and (2) seem to think that it is actually a bad thing to acknowledge a trivial error and move on.

Very revealing.

Even when I have repeatedly asked for proof you have not provided it.

You’re just making things up, now. Show one (1) example of you repeatedly asking for proof and me not doing do.

Instead you have demanded that I do all the heavy lifting. Which I am no longer willing to do.

No, I’ve just asked you to back up claims. It’s not my fault you have decided to make so many, and while clearly hastily Googling things. There would be fewer if you could acknowledge the obviously true things I say instead of trying to pick new fights about them.

Good day, sir.

Please avoid the use of gendered assumptions.

Yeah, the person above you seems to be ignoring the fact that them breaching their air space for the first time is an escalation, not to mention China has generally been escalating it’s rhetoric recently.

Surely this makes offensive missiles designed for nukes a proportional response to a plane with no weapons briefly dipping a toe into Japanese airspace over ocean on one of its several circles.

I haven’t ignored anything, I’m just aware of how absurd this is. No one saying this is a reasonable response can claim to care about escalation.

It could be argued that China is feeling pressured to escalate (due to external events or US escalating trade/policy stances), but threatening a missile system is more signaling “keep this up and we’ll respond”.

By nuking them?

A plane with no weapons circled near some islands and dipped a toe into a tiny sliver of Japanese airspace - over water - in a single pass. Check the map.

China is full of shit about it being unintentional, they’ve been playing grey zone games for quite a few years now and the nations around them have caught on.

Your intellectual insight is to claim that this flight path was entirely designed around that one pass entering Japanese airspace? Perhaps you can share your spy recordings where they say, “surely this is how we will advance our cause”.

I’d argue missile deployment is exactly proportional to an unplanned breach of airspace by a military asset.

That flight path with a toe dip into airspace over ocean vs. missiles designed to carry nukes. Do you not understand the difference between offensive nuclear weapons and maybe hearing a plane flying offshore?

It’s historically a pretty good idea to build up your defense when a neighbor is brandishing their military on your borders

Are you afraid of that plane and its flight path? You’re using language as if it is a weapon and threat.

Sure, if you’re not on the same team you get defenestrated. That is a powerful motivator. But it is a powerful motivator for a coup as well.

I don’t know what those sentences mean. But I can tell you that your Great Man Theory here is incorrect.

As you well know all we have are estimates.

How can you know the real number is being hidden if you don’t know it? There is a lot of specific knowledge required to support your claim. I think we both know that is because you read it in a headline.

All realistic estimates put the number over 600000 killed and wounded.

Show me your most realistic estimate source.

Of those 68011 have been confirmed killed by name.

That is a very specific number. It is a number from BBC Russia, in fact, and it is misleading to say “confirmed” as it is actually based on trusting their guesswork and crowdsourcing. It is from 3 days ago.

Remember, your claim is that Russia is hiding the real toll. So you must know it yourself and be able to explain how it is being hidden.

There is a significant difference between what the Russian media is telling the people and what they see on Telegram and directly from their husbands and relatives. […]

You did not answer my question.

LOL. Those middle-men are not cheap.

This does not address what I said.

Russia is producing at most two to three hundred tanks a year. And most of those are refurbished tanks. Based on the financials.

What financials yell you the number of tanks Russia is currently producing?

And it is losing five to six hundred a year. Based on Ukrainian numbers.

Why would you accept their numbers at face value? Not even their NATO sponsors trust their numbers.

I call you a troll when you ignore reality and keep repeating Russian talking points.

This is how you process my disagreement with you, yes. By namecalling and making things up. Please try to do better.

I call you a troll when you demand I justify my position while providing no justification for yours.

You are repeatedly offering up absurdities. Your original comment was as simplistic as, “Russia could just leave” and you then invented a series of increasing absurdities cribbed from headlines and articles that were both know you just Googled. When you compound absurd claims you will have to spend a lot of time backing them up. At least, if the other person is paying attention.

My comments have mostly been to poke holes in the absurdities and ask you to make your implied knowledge consistent with your claims. It has not gone well.

You seem to think it is unfair that you have had to answer questions about your silly claims. This makes me think you don’t know how yo ask your own. Would you like me to teach you how to do so?

Russian inflation is right now at 9.1% and rising. Inflation hasn’t been below 4% since the beginning the war. At worst it has been at 17,8%. Compared to other economies of similar size it is among the worst in the world. Western countries are nowhere near these figures.

The 9% number is quarterly, for the year it will be around 7. Germany’s inflation rate in 2023 was around 6. It was around 4 in the UK for the same year, hitting 9% for a quarter the year prior. The US had rates of 7-9% in 2021-2022. Italy’s was 8 in 2022 and 5ish in 2023.

You are objectively incorrect about this being incomparable to other relevant states.

Most of the growth in the Russian economy has come from the war economy. This is not healthy in the long term and will cause problems when the war ends.

Ah yes, this is why 1950s America was just one big recession.

Before the invasion the ruble was around hovering around 1 USD to 70 RUB. Right now it around 1 USD to 90 RUB.

Ah, looks like I am wrong and despite early jumps it has now settled into a slightly lower exchange rate. Still not weak, however.

They are rising rapidly in the sectors that are dependent on the war economy. Others simply cannot afford to raise them and have to go without staff.

Both wages and employment are up, actually. You are telling very specific stories about behavior in contradiction of the wider facts. Presumably you are an undercover gonzo economist in Russia?

I wonder how the “Russia could just leave” person could suddenly possess such specific knowledge!

In this comment I’ve now gone through inflation and currency. What next?

You ignored sections of my last comment that would allow you to partially answer this question yourself. Perhaps instead of replying only to the parts you feel like, you could read the full response and internalize it?

When are you going to start justifying any of your positions?

I haven’t made the error if saying a bunch of silly, very specific things that disagree with reality. But you already said something like this and I already answered it.

They certainly are but they are all subservient to Putin.

No, they’re all on the same team and their collective is the most powerful thing. If the major owners of companies all want a policy change in a capitalist system, they get it. Putin is their political operative and has power with their consent.

They stand to lose quite a lot when Russia loses. And when they decide to cut their losses. Putin will lose his head. That’s why he is so paranoid.

When Russia loses? They are winning, their economy is booming, and the country is stable. You’ve just listed a series of implausible outcomes. Is there a probable one you haven’t told me?

Now I know you’re trolling. Nobody sane will look at Russia’s recent financial figures and conclude that Russian economy is going great.

Happy to discuss them. How is the ruble doing? Total imports and exports? Employment? Shortages? Inflation?

civil war is a real possibility because of disgruntled soldiers. Who are not getting paid

The RF pays its soldiers.

Don’t get what they are promised in terms of equipment training etc.

This also happens in the US but their only civil war was over slavery. What evidence do you have that this is widespread and leading to organized treason?

General mismanagement, corruption and abuse in the Russian army.

Have you ever heard a person that was in the US army talk about any of those things? Why would this mean one thing in the RF and another in the US?

The number of casualties cannot be hidden any more either

Hidden? So you know the real number?

Recruiting more soldiers is getting harder and harder for Russia. Why else would they pay more and more money for recruitment?

This does not make it unsustainable. This was also the logic and methodology used by the US when it was officially in hot wars.

The people know how fucked up things are for a common soldier. Especially now that Ukraine is in Kursk. Where most of the soldiers were conscripts.

You have a read on the bulk sentiment of, “the people”? How?

Then why are Chinese banks refusing to work with Russia for fear of sanctions?

Because those are small Chinese banks that don’t feel confident they’ve worked around sanctions. Small fry. I assume you just read a headline from around two weeks ago?

Why Russian banks resorting to crypto currencies and paying middle-men to conduct trade?

Because it is an easy way to bypass international finance restrictions. The necessity of things like this is why other countries are desperate to join alternatives to SWIFT.

It certainly has. Refurbishing old soviet-era tanks from cold storage. Russia is not producing new tanks nearly fast enough compared to what they are losing in Ukraine.

Oh? How many is it producing vs losing?

Again with the trolling about strong Russian economy when the financial figures give quite a different picture.

Should I start calling you a troll every time you disagree with me? Is this logical, to you?

Russian currency reserves are falling. Next to go will be the gold reserves. Russia only has Chinese yuan and gold left. And China is now demanding payments in gold.

It is spending its reserves, yes. But this means less for a country with a strong industrial base and sufficient bilateral trade.

Inflation is really high.

Tell me the number. How does it compare to other countries over the last 4 years?

Ruble is weak. And holding on by artificial restrictions.

The ruble is stronger now than before the invasion.

Due to the war and declining population, both due to brain drain and lack of children, Russia has a severe worker shortage.

Then wages should be rapidly rising. Are wages rapidly rising?

These are not the signs of a strong and healthy economy.

To get a sense of how the real economy is doing you have to look at statistics you haven’t even mentioned.

Only until 1952

De jure, yes. But also what is your point? Do you think this contradicts anything I said?

Everything you’re saying sounds like a strawman argument.

A straw man argument is where you pretend someone else is making an argument that they aren’t because it is rhetorically easier to address.

At which point have I done that even once?

Russia has far more military capacity than Ukraine. Every escalation runs the risk of Russia adopting NATO’s scorched earth tactics. Russia clearly sees value in the slow grind approach, which they explain as a de facto demilitarization of Ukraine, but if they ever stop seeing value in that…

Don’t forget what NATO member countries do to their military targets and what the outcomes are. Every population center in North Korea bombed out. Agent orange, napalm, mass bombing campaigns in Laos and Vietnam. Reckless and depraved mass killings in Algeria. Two invasions of Iraq and interceding sanctions that killed millions of children, with a heavy focus on the destruction of civilian infrastructure.

Hoping for escalation can only mean hoping fot mass death for Ukrainians. This is not a movie or an idle fantasy where we get to play pretend about knocking a knife out if the bad guys hands. This is the real world with actual troop deployments and bombing campaigns and industrial bases and drones that pick people off while they sleep and a country that still functions but can be made to not with about a week of bombings.